Sunday 27 July 2014

Post By-Election reflections..


This post is a follow up to my earlier blog on Thursday about the by-election in Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun, in which a fellow Young Green (Pete Kennedy) stood for the Greens.

As such I will give you the results and a quick analysis of the results. Then back to my usual blogging pattern of every Thursday.

The results are as follows:

Candidate
Party
Number of Votes
% of Votes
ALLEN, Nick
Conservative
479
16.2
BISSET, Paul
UKIP
1203 (elected)
40.8
KENNEDY, Pete
Green
160
5.4
NEVETT, David
Labour
1109
37.6
TOTAL
2951
Turnout- 27.5%



Now the results for the Greens are not the best, as can be seen in the table above, and the fact that UKIP have got elected is also disappointing for me. However that is how the people of Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun have voted and that must be respected. However there still is some potential for analysis!

The fact that UKIP have taken the seat is perhaps most worrying for Labour. This reinforces the notion that Labour is losing touch with its "core" working class voters in the party's traditional heartlands. As well as further building upon the success that UKIP had in the local and European elections in May in Yorkshire and the Humber.


In particular within Ed Miliband's own back yard of Doncaster!
Another point that should be noticed is that there is no Lib Dem candidate standing in this by election. This is could be due to the fact that the Lib Dems in Doncaster couldn't find a candidate to stand in time. However, this could be interpreted as a sign that the Lib Dems are beginning to concentrate their resources on maintaining the vote in their "heartlands".  As in the 2010 elections, the Lib Dems managed to get a respectable vote in all 3 of the Doncaster constituencies: Doncaster North, Doncaster Central and Don Valley.

Constituency
Number of Votes
% of Votes
Doncaster Central
8795
21.1
Doncaster North
6174
14.9
Don Valley
7422
17.1

However I think that the Lib Dems will poll far worse than they did in May 2010. This is not only due to the dissatisfaction of former Lib Dem voters, but also the "rise" of UKIP.

Getting back to the Greens the result isn't the best, but I think there are lessons to be learnt for the party. From what I have read of Pete's own analysis and reflection on Facebook, I think he personally feels that he has gained a lot from the experience and I have no doubt that he will be a great future Green councillor. This sentiment can be best reflected in the comments made by Andrew Cooper (pictured) (The lead Green MEP candidate for Yorkshire and the Humber):

"In 1992 we got 6% in the Newsome Ward in Kirklees and then decided to put solid casework in and by 1996 we won the seat and have won every local election since. Well done on the effort. Rome wasn't turned into an ecological paradise in a day. UKIPs foundations aren't solid and their candidates are often ill equipped to be local councillors."

Andrew Cooper, the lead candidate for the Greens in Yorkshire and the Humber region in the 2014 European elections.
 
This shows that although we may not have got Pete elected, there is a base of votes for us to build upon as a party in future. As well as showing that there is a need for us to wait and see how the new UKIP councillor, Paul Bissett performs…

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