Monday 29 September 2014

The kaleidoscope has been shaken... Part 2

Previously...

I noticed that I ended last week's blog on a bit of a cliffhanger. Mainly as I was conscious of word count  and time. However, this week I am under no such pressure!

Last time, I finished off by saying how I support the call made by Caroline Lucas for a Constitutional Convention to discuss how the unwritten UK constitution would evolve into the future. Now I have mainly focused on my personal response and the political fallout in England. So now its time to head north to Scotland and see what happened since.

Nicola Sturgeon, Queen of Scots

Probably the biggest and most immediate impact from No vote in Scotland, was the resignation of Alex Salmond as both the First Minister and Leader of the SNP (Scottish National Party). This has sent shock waves through Scottish politics, as he pretty much was the face of the Yes campaign and for many Scotland as a whole. I also thought that the way he resigned was gracious and moderate in his acceptance of his defeat. The dream of an independent Scotland had been his political raison d'etre and had spurred him on throughout his political career. But now the metaphorical torch of independence would have to passed to another generation, something that Salmond hinted at in his resignation speech. But as usual time will be the best judge of that. It all depends on what kind of devolution deal that Westminster can come up with to placate the Scots.


Alex Salmond, Scottish First Minister delivering his resignation speech in Edinburgh.


Now with Salmond gone, all eyes have quickly turned to his second-in-command, Nicola Sturgeon (pictured below) to take the torch forward. As Deputy First Minister and Head of the Yes campaign, she has certainly been playing a dominant role in the referendum campaign. As a result she has gained much UK wide recognition as a female politician and is dubbed to be the next leader of the SNP. This presents an interesting proposition for Scottish politics, in that Scotland will be lead by a woman that has been elected on a democratic basis.

So will she be like Angela Merkel in Germany or Maggie Thatcher in being a symbolic representation of a powerful female leader. Only time will tell, but in her speech in which she states how she hopes that her candidacy will be a example to girls and women across Scotland to engage in politics. Again only time will tell!


Nicola Sturgeon, The new Queen of Scots?

I predict a riot..

The results of the referendum have also been seen in other ways as well. On the morning after there was a series of reported scuffles between pro and anti independence supporters in George Square in Glasgow. Now for those who don't know, George Square is the epicentre for any political demonstrations in the city of Glasgow. Traditionally these were representations of "Red Glasgow", but on polling day and night, it  became the base for the Yes supporters. I have even heard rumours that some of the Yes supporters were calling it "Independence Square", in light of a Yes vote. Well actually Glasgow did vote for independence, something which the Scottish Labour Party aren't to pleased with I bet. So it was probably natural that George Square became a hub of the Yes supporters.
 However, the skirmishes between both sides has not done either side any favours! I too felt the disappointment of Scots choosing to stay with the status quo. I too wanted Westminster to get a good kick up the bum! In some ways, I feel it has and whether or not it will is again left to be seen...



The people are getting lairy in Glasgow's George Square

The Big Bang!

Another way that the referendum has begun to effect Scottish politics is the rapid increase in the memberships of the pro-independence parties. Most notably the SNP and the Scottish Greens. The SNP has seen an exponential rise in membership and has now seen them overtaking both UKIP and the Lib Dems. This makes them the 3rd largest political party by membership in the UK as a whole. Only being topped by the Conservatives and Labour. At the time of writing this blog,the SNP's membership stood at 72,448! A massive jump even from last week:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/22/snp-poised-become-largest-political-parties.

Now it should be noted that this figure is based on a Tweet from a SNP supporter. But still even so it provides some compensation for the SNP. Whilst providing some fear for the other established parties that the SNP will not necessarily vanish overnight.

Similarly the Scottish Greens have also seen an incredible amount of growth in their membership, with an additional 3000 members by last Monday. This puts their membership at over 6000, according to their Wikipedia page. This again is a very positive result and shows that the Greens have now properly entered the political arena in Scotland. 



Cllr Maggie Chapman and Patrick Harvie MSP, the Co-Conveners of the Scottish Greens.

Let the discussions begin...

So as the dust from the referendum continues to settle and people get on with their own lives again, the attention now turns to so what now? As Westminster makes its promises to Scotland, as previously mentioned in a cross party devolution commission. Once again we would have to wait for the outcome of the their deliberations on how Scotland is to be governed in future. One thing that I did like was that the Scottish Greens are to be included in these discussions. Which I think is a really positive move and will show that the Greens can be involved in serious decision making and are not just pie in the sky!


Stayed tuned..

Well again its getting to that time of day again, where I'm at risk of repetitive strain disorder and have to stop. However, looking forward into October I want to change my focus to each of the main British political parties and what they have to offer in the run up to the general election. After that who knows!



Saturday 27 September 2014

The kaleidoscope has been shaken... Part 1

The Kaleidoscope

Again I am finding a spare moment to blog this week. In addition to releasing that the phrase:

"a week is a long time in politics..",

does have some meaning since my last blog. So much has changed since then and this week's post is an attempt to rake over all that has happened in a concise manner.

The title of this week's post is in reference to a speech that was given by former Prime Minister Tony Blair (pictured) to the Labour Party conference in 2001. Back then the horrors of 9/11 were still sinking into the Western mind set and the hopes of a more peaceful world were now looking remote. At the time, I was 9 years old and had little realisation of the true meaning of what had happened. For all I knew, it has some very bad people doing a very thing.




Former Prime Minister Tony Blair.

But its not 9/11 that I want to refer to here, its the words that Blair used:

"This is a moment to seize. The Kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. Soon they will settle again. Before they do, let us re-order this world around us..."

Now Tony Blair was referring to the need to taken on the causes of international terrorism and poverty. A strange combination in my opinion! However I feel that these words are particularly resonant for British politics at the moment, in particular in reference to the continuing fallout from the Scottish referendum.

So this week, as stated previously, I will try and some up this fallout and its long term consequences for everyone in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The Morning after the Night before...

After pulling an all nighter to watch the referendum results come in, I got a sense that things were somehow reverting back to the status quo a bit. Whilst their was a buzz of uncertainty and the possibility of something having changed in the air.

As soon as the first result came in from Clackmannanshire (pictured) for the No side, I had a sneaking suspicion that it was going to go against independence. This feeling intensified with the following spate of local authorities saying No to Scottish independence.


Clackmannanshire went first and said No!

But then, Dundee happened. Dundee, the forth largest city in Scotland voted for Yes (pictured). This was expected as Dundee has been named as Yes City by pollsters and commentators. What cheered me the most was that the polls suddenly narrowed after this declaration, and an ember of maybes and possibilities was relit. If only briefly...


Whilst Dundee said Yes!
 

Then the chorus of No continued. I felt a particular pain after the Stirling declaration and the No result. As I knew a lot of friends and fellow campaigners who had been working hard for a Yes vote there.
In the end only 4 local authorities backed independence: Dundee, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire. However across Scotland this translated into 1.6 million votes for Yes in comparison to the No campaign's 2,001,926 votes. In percentage terms this was 45% for Yes and 55% for No respectively.

As such many of the pro-unionists were relieved that the status quo had been maintained if only temporarily. Even the Queen (pictured) gave her purr of approval to the result (see link below).

 
A contented Queen apparently "purred" at the result for No.
 


http://metro.co.uk/2014/09/23/queen-purred-in-delight-at-scottish-referendum-result-david-cameron-says-4879430/

So what now?

Another person that was relieved to keep his country united and his job was the Prime Minister. On the morning after he addressed the nation on the doorstep of Number 10 (pictured). In which he acknowledged the result and pledged additional powers to be devolved to Holyrood (The Scottish Parliament).




David Cameron promising a "new politics" on the doorstep of Number 10.

This was in addition to changing the debate completely and move the discussion to devolution within England. A perhaps a pragmatic move to ward off any backbench Tory revolt in the Commons. But also pragmatic in the sense that English people, including myself, would want a fairer constitutional deal for the rest of the UK.

As such there has been a range of different proposals put forward for how to achieve this. From English votes for English MPs to a full Constitutional Convention on the issue. This has lead to a variety of statements and political stunts from both sides of the political spectrum.

Nigel Farage, UKIP leader and darling of the media, did a stunt in which he posted 59 letters to all 59 Scottish MPs (pictured). In which he tells them that they should not vote on English issues in Parliament.

Nigel Farage, a post box and the British media..


Now seeing as the majority of Scottish MPs are to the centre-left, I doubt whether many of Mr Farage's letters have left their respective out trays of the MPs constituency offices or gone the paper recycling bins.

In a similar vein, the PM has opted for a boys talk with Tory MPs at Chequers (the PM's country pad). As well as tasking William Hague (the former Foreign Secretary) to lead a parliamentary committee to thrash out a series of proposals before the next election in May. Now call me a pessimist, but I feel that this is a bit optimistic for any committee to achieve, especially in the run to an election!

In contrast, the Green MP for Brighton Pavilion, Caroline Lucas (pictured) has made a call for a full cross-party Convention on the issue. In which not just English devolution would be discussed, but also issues of proportional representation, voting age and the House of Lords would be discussed. For more info, please follow the link below:


Caroline Lucas, Green MP, calls for a Constitutional Convention to discuss the key issues.

Left Foot Forward

http://leftfootforward.org/2014/09/an-open-letter-from-caroline-lucas-to-the-three-party-leaders/

Yorkshire and the Humber Green Party
http://yorkshireandhumber.greenparty.org.uk/news.html/2014/09/18/an-open-letter-from-caroline-lucas-mp-to-the-three-party-leaders/

Speaking for myself here, I think that we should have as a nation a serious discussion on our unwritten constitution in a mature and responsible manner. As not only can it allow for the widest public participation and engagement, but finally put to bed some of the uncomfortable political questions rattling around Westminster at the moment.

Until Next Time...

In realisation of not wanting to write reams and reams, I have decided to split this post in half and finish it off in another post. Although I do promise that there won't be a very long gap between the two half. So for now, over and out!

 






















Thursday 18 September 2014

Decision Day!

So it's finally here! The referendum on Scottish independence will be decided today, as Scots go to the polls. It's been almost 2 years of solid campaigning between the Yes and No camps since the Edinburgh Agreement between Cameron and Salmond was signed (see link below).

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-19942638


The Saltire or St Andrew's Flag being flown in Westminster.

 An unprecedented 4,285,323 people or 97% of the Scottish electorate are registered to vote in the referendum today.  This has undoubtedly led to many saying that this will be this highest electoral turnout in Scottish history. No doubts that it probably will be as 16-17 years are included in the ballot for the first time in any elections in UK history.

Seeing as I'm an Englishman and can't vote today, I will keep the rest of this blog short and wait for the result tonight. However, I will put the most recent polling figures down and wait for the ultimate "Poll of Polls", that is the decision made by the Scottish people. So here it goes:

SURVATION (16/09/2014)

NO- 48%

YES- 44%

PANEL BASE (17/09/2014)

NO- 50%

YES- 45%

ICM (16/09/2014)

NO- 45%

YES- 41%

IPSOS MORI (16/09/2014)

NO- 49%

YES- 47%

YOUGOV (17/09/2014)

NO- 50%

YES- 45%

NB- All Don't Know figures have been excluded.

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/poll-tracker

Additional Links

BBC News- Scottish independence: Voting under way in referendum.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29238890

BBC News- Scottish independence: Guide to Scottish referendum night.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29176884

BBC News- Scottish independence: What if the result is a dead heat?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29226235

BBC News- Scottish independence: Councils braced for huge turnout.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29235191

BBC News- Scottish independence: What new powers might Scotland get?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25626977

BBC News- Scottish independence: Scots referendum sparks 10m Facebook interactions.

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29202729

Der Spiegel- King Alex: The Man behind Scotland's Independence Movement.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/scottish-independence-has-been-a-lifelong-goal-for-alex-salmond-a-991683.html

NBC News- Scottish Tennis Star Andy Murray voices support for Independence.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/scotland-independence-vote/scottish-tennis-star-andy-murray-voices-support-independence-n205966

Yes Scotland- Yes Scotland home page
http://www.yesscotland.net/

Scottish Green Party- Green Yes
http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/independence/

Better Together- Better Together home page
http://www.bettertogether.net/

 

 

 

 

Monday 15 September 2014

Kia Ora. Let's Get Antipodal!


Looking South

Whilst the attention of many within the UK maybe now north of the border in Scotland with the impending referendum, and rightly so! This week I want to flip things on their heads and face in the completely the opposite direction.  This is both in a literal and political sense in terms of looking at New Zealand (NZ).

Now Wellington (NZ's capital) is approximately 11,567 miles as the crows flies from Sheffield (where I am writing this blog). But like in Scotland things are beginning to get very interesting down there in a political sense too. The reason being is that it's the general election campaign there at the moment, with the election due on the 20th September. This is where Kiwis (New Zealanders) will be voting for 120 members (MPs) for their House of Representatives, their equivalent to the House of Commons. For more general info on the elections, do use the link to Wikipedia below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_general_election,_2014


A quick word up, NZ elections are different to those in the UK. The reason being is that they have proportional representation, something this blogger wants to see here too. The system they use is called Mixed-Member Proportional Representation or MMP. The essentials are that voters get 2 votes. One is for a constituency and one for a party list. Confused? Well this delightful video by vlogger CP Grey can probably explain in better than I:


NZ Greens (Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand)

The reason that I am interested in these elections is because of the strength of the Green Party in New Zealand. They currently occupy the coveted position of being the 3rd largest party in NZ politics.  This is equivalent to the Lib Dems or UKIP in the UK, depending on which polls you care to believe. The size of the Greens in NZ is due to the proportional rep system that NZ has. As it allows for smaller parties to enter the political arena, and dare I say it have some influence on things.

Currently the NZ Greens have 14 MPs in the House of Representatives, all from the party list. 3 City councillors in Wellington City Council, 2 on Wellington Regional Council, 2 councillors in Dunedin and 1 rep on the Christchurch Community Boards.

Overall the Greens are a sizeable party on the political scene in NZ. The party also operates under a Male and Female Co-Leader system, like the Scottish Greens and unlike the Green Party of England and Wales (GPEW). The current co-leaders are Metiria Turei and Russel Norman (pictured below).


Metiria Turei and Russel Norman (current Green Co-Leaders).
 

As such, they are both the party's top 2 candidates on the party list (see link below).


In the last election in 2011, the Greens managed to increase their number of MPs by 5 from 9 to 14. As well as gaining 247,370 votes or 11.06% of the total vote. Now if the Greens here in the UK managed that we would be laughing! However, what needs to be taken into account is the fact that NZ has proportional rep and has a much smaller electorate (people who can vote) than the UK. Although it still is a great result none the less!

Election 2014

Now as I am a relative newby to NZ politics and no relatively little of the political issues in NZ, then I will try in this section to always to refer you to the correct web link. As who can explain Kiwi politics better than the Kiwis themselves! But here it goes…

From what I can gather (any Kiwi readers, please do correct me!) there are 4 main parties in NZ politics: National (Nats), Labour, Greens and NZ First. Links to all the parties' web pages can be found below in their respective party colours:

National

https://www.national.org.nz/

Labour

http://campaign.labour.org.nz/

Greens

https://www.greens.org.nz/

NZ First

http://nzfirst.org.nz/

This is in addition to a myriad of smaller political parties whose web details can be found below:

Maori

http://maoriparty.org/

Internet MANA

https://internetmana.org.nz/

United Future

http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/

ACT

http://www.act.org.nz/

Conservative

http://www.conservativeparty.org.nz/

 
Deutschland und Neuseeland (Germany and New Zealand)

Currently, NZ has a National (blue) government that is led by NZ Prime Minister, John Key (pictured below). Key and his party managed to get 59 seats in the House of Representatives, on 47.31% of the vote.


The Rt. Hon. John Key, NZ Prime Minister.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_general_election,_2011

A look at the polling data from the 2011 election until now, would suggest that he just might do it again. A bit like Angela Merkel (pictured) in the German federal elections last year.


 

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany looking famously displeased.

In another parallel to Deutschpolitik (German politics), the main opposition party (Labour) doesn't appear on its own to be putting up much of a fight to the Nats. Rather like the SDP (Social Democrats) they appear to be lagging behind the Nats in the polls (see below). Whilst the Greens in both countries (Bundis 90/Die Gruenen in Germany) hold around 8-12% of the poll. At the moment the NZ Greens appear to be doing better than their German counterparts!



The New Zealand opinion polls from 2011-present.

With the latest Fairfax Media/ Ipsos poll predicting that the NZ Greens will get 13% in the election on Saturday. With the NZ Greens now looking to be a permanent feature in NZ politics and the NZ Labour Party doing not so great, there have been talks of a potential Labour-Green coalition if the results go their way.


Again looking to Germany, there have been perfectly good examples of how a Red-Green coalition can effectively run a government. As shown by the first and second Schroeder governments between 1998 and 2005.



Closer to home for me, the local Green Party in York (my old stomping ground) is in coalition talks with the Labour party to run the city council. This is because Labour has lost their local majority over the council due to defections of councillors to other parties.

http://york.greenparty.org.uk/news/14/rainbow-alliance-possible-following-defection-of-labour-councillor.html

http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/11464977.Labour_loses_majority_in_York_as_councillor_quits_and_joins_Conservatives/

So a so called Red-Green and possibly some other coalition can actually work and there is no reason why it can't work in NZ. However, as mentioned previously the NZ Nats look likely to win on Saturday with the Kiwis polls as they are. Despite this though it still would be interesting to see how the NZ Greens perform and whether they can continue their steady march into the mainstream.

Further Links

Here are some interesting articles and extra links to the NZ Greens, if you should choose to read them. So for now over and out!

Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/nzgreenparty#!/nzgreenparty

Twitter
https://twitter.com/NZGreens

Greens top Facebook poll
http://www.mad-daily.com/greens-top-nats-facebook-poll/

Policy
https://www.greens.org.nz/policy

YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/user/nzgreenparty

Kiwi Greens UK
http://kiwigreens.org.uk/

Thursday 11 September 2014

The Heat is On!

Yet again a new month has begun and I'm already behind with my blog. Again I do have my reasons for this. Namely the fact that I am employed and the Green Party conference in Birmingham on Saturday. Now I don't want to blether on about either today, but I do want to say that I am on Cloud 9 as a result. 

News of the Week

This week I will talk about the topic that is on everyone's lips: The Scottish referendum. With only 1 week to go, things are certainly hotting up with the debate for Yay or Nay. 

The recent explosion of interest, has been the result of a recent YouGov poll which showed that the Yes campaign was narrowly in front. This is for the first time since the debate really began. The poll showed that 51% backed Yes, compared to 49% for No.  This has left the Yes campaign in a very buoyant mood indeed.




Nicola Sturgeon, SNP, Deputy First Minister outside Glasgow Central Mosque with some Yes supporters.

However, as always political polls should be taken with a pinch of proverbial salt. This particular poll is only of 1084 people and excludes the Don't Knows (DK). Although this has been enough to send the political establishment dashing up on the first train north to quell the nationalist mood and give some backbone to the No campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29126386

3 Amigos

The three main party leaders: Cameron, Clegg and Miliband have all put on a rare display of unity to preserve the union between Scotland and the rUK. Each promising different things to ensure that this fair isle of ours stays as one. To me it appeared like the 3 Amigos of Business as Usual (BAU) politics in a desperate attempt to hold things together. Whether or not they have any impact on the polls for the referendum as they tighten is still to be decided. What is though is that neither side can rest on their proverbial laurels until next Thursday.


Hear No Evil, See No Evil, Speak No Evil. The 3 main party leaders in Scotland.

The Female of the Species...

So what can be the cause of this sudden rise in support for the Yes campaign? One reason might be the female vote. This is very important as women have a slight demographic advantage in comparison to men in Scotland. I think its around 52% to 48%. As such this makes wooing those "wee Scottish lassies" very important for both sides of the campaign. 

The Yes campaign has been particularly active with groups such as:

Women For Independence

https://www.facebook.com/women4independence;

Mums for Change


As well the many other groups that women can be involved in. What they show is that the Yes campaign takes the female vote very seriously and wants to persuade enough women to see that being in an independent country is more beneficial to them. This is in addition to the SNP making Nicola Sturgeon (see earlier photo) as their campaign leader for the SNP's Yes campaign. A tactical move on the SNP's part? Maybe or maybe not. Although it does help with the Yes campaign's image of appealing to the women of Scotland. 

Whilst in comparison, the Better Together campaign just has a generic "Get Involved" page for people to sign up on.

http://bettertogether.net/page/s/volunteer-now

Now I am not trying to poo-poo what Better Together have done. Not at all. The generic sign method has the advantage of gathering in supporters from all walks of life without then sub dividing them by gender etc., as the Yes campaign has done. However, this misses the trick of providing a space for women in particular to meet and discuss the issues of the referendum together and how it will effect them. Also the coalition of groups supporting the Yes campaign has the look of many different groups with different objectives coming together to support a common cause.

Although, I will say that perhaps I do have a slight bias for the Yes campaign and I do welcome any comments from the No campaign.

My point is that the importance of gaining the female vote is paramount to deciding the referendum. As this interesting BBC documentary (see link below), engaging women in the debate has proven an intriguing insight into the wider issue of women and politics. So I will let you decide, but I would that the programme is definitely worth a watch!


The Resterners

So what about the rest of the UK? What do people think in England, Wales and Northern Ireland? Do they care? 

Well on that last point, I think that the rest of the British population are beginning to care about what happens in Scotland. As was shown by the knee jerk reaction by the Westminster establishment to the aforementioned poll by YouGov. But what about the common people? 

On Monday, the BBC did a report in which they came to my own home town of Chesterfield to ask people about what they thought on the referendum. I am assuming that they chose ChesVegas (my personal name for the town) as its roughly half way between Scotland and London. Or maybe a dart was thrown at a map of the East Midlands by the production team, and it landed on Chesterfield. Now there was a mixture of Yes, No and DK but what it did show was that some people in England do care about what the Scots do.


My home town of Chesterfield and how it became involved in the referendum debate.

The feeling that I personally sense the most is that people in England are asking:

"Well what about us here in England?"

One of the things that has arisen south of the border is a growing sense of wondering what it is to be English. Traditionally the English have been happy with the status quo within the union. However, ever since there has been devolution to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in the late 90s, has left some people wondering well what about England. 

With issues such as the West Lothian question and the on average higher amount spending per head in Scotland (thanks to the Barnett formula). It has led to a renewed English nationalism to appear in many forms and guises from the English Defence League (EDL) to the English Democrats.

Even within the Green Party, it is official party policy to have greater devolution to the English regions. This is in contrast to the English Democrats who want an independent English parliament. There have even been calls for a Cornish Assembly and possibly even a Yorkshire assembly!

http://www.change.org/p/the-uk-prime-minister-and-cabinet-create-a-cornish-assembly


Whether these calls for devolved English assemblies ever become reality is a debate for another day. However, what it does show is that the way we do politics in Britain will never be quite the same again. 

This is why I am supporting the Yes campaign after many months of dithering. As I want it to open up a nation wide debate of how we do politics. Not just in Scotland, but across all of the UK. Even if it is a No vote, I still feel that this political "genie" can't be put back in the bottle. It needs to be out there and discussed. 

So on the evening of Thursday 18th September, I intend to pull an all nighter and watch the results come in. This will be the most momentous event in recent British political history and its effects will last long into the future. So from me it is a resounding YES!